Our Take | Refreshed Goals for the Climate and Health Movement Heading into 2025

As a matter of some urgency, our loosely organized but highly engaged and growing coalition of climate and health advocates needs to know how we answer the questions: What's next? What exactly is it that we want to achieve?   

Author: Kelly Willis, Global Lead, Forecasting Healthy Futures Consortium

By now, we’ve all had a chance to absorb the outcomes of COP29 in Azerbaijan and reflect on the gains we’ve made in moving health closer to the center of climate discourse. One of the most significant gains, of course, being the establishment of the Baku COP Presidencies Continuity Coalition for Climate and Health.

As Stefan Anderson wrote for Health Policy Watch, “The coalition’s key achievement… is significant: after decades of fighting, health advocates and WHO officials will no longer have to relitigate the importance of health as a central concern in climate talks.”

Where will we now direct the time and energy we’ve been spending over “decades of fighting”, just trying to get health on the UNFCCC map?

The question reminds me of one Minister of Health Chiponda of Malawi asked a room full of delegates at this year’s United Nations General Assembly in New York, in a meeting convened by the COP28 Presidency. “What next after ‘Health Day’?” she asked, referring to last year’s milestone December 3 event in Dubai. “Is it going to be Health Week? Health Month? What exactly is it that we want to achieve?”

As a matter of some urgency, our loosely organized but highly engaged and growing coalition of climate and health advocates needs to know how we answer that question.

Of course, there is no shortage of worthy climate policy goals to pursue in the interest of global health. We’ll continue to push for integrating health in NDCs and ensuring health indices in the global goal on adaptation. We’ll work to see that health-determinant sectors also adapt and become more resilient. We’ll pursue health co-benefits by promoting mitigation in energy, transport, agriculture, food, and other sectors. We should certainly collaborate to identify further action opportunities in all of these areas.

But maybe a definitive starting point would be to establish a global goal for climate finance to support health adaptation initiatives in developing countries.

For all the disappointment around the grossly inadequate $300B target for climate financing negotiated in Baku last month, we shouldn’t lose sight of the opportunity it affords the sectors that most convincingly make a compelling investment case. I can think of few sectors where those funds could have as much impact as in public health.

How much of that $300B should be used to protect lives from the impact of climate change by addressing worsening climate-sensitive disease? How much of it should be used to build resilient health systems and protect against future impact? To fund early warning and response systems? To improve the underlying health of our most vulnerable populations?

Forecasting Healthy Futures invites more urgent dialogue around refreshed goals for the climate and health movement. It’s one of the things we hope to do in earnest at our next Global Summit, scheduled for April 8 -10 in Rio de Janeiro.

Please reach out to see how you and your organization can be involved in our planning!

Register here to participate in person or virtually at our 2025 Forecasting Healthy Futures Global Summit.

ASTMH 2024: A Discussion on How Malaria and Dengue Early Warning Systems Can Strengthen Adaptation and Response to Climate Change

The World Bank estimates that climate change could lead to at least 21 million additional deaths by 2050 from just five health risks (extreme heat, stunting, diarrhea, dengue and malaria). To explore new perspectives and actionable solutions in response to the impending health impacts of climate change, the Institute for Health Modeling and Climate Solutions (IMACS) hosted a symposium at the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (ASTMH) 2024 annual meeting, featuring members of the IMACS expert network.


The panel discussion, entitled, “How Malaria and Dengue Early Warning Systems Can Strengthen Adaptation and Response to Climate Change,” included reflections and observations on how climate-informed early warning systems (EWS) have the potential to serve as powerful adaptation tools to the growing threats of climate change to health by increasing effectiveness of disease control and strengthening.


Here is what we heard:


“When fully operational, early warning systems can be helpful in building health systems resilient to climate change,” said James Colborn, Senior Malaria Advisor, Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI). “But to achieve full functionality, we need to address all different aspects of the ecosystem, and this involves the design of early warning systems, which must take into account many different factors, including availability of data, analytical tools, as well as stakeholders and communities that will be using the early warning system.”


“In terms of tools, there is no one silver bullet that can meet the purpose of early earning and response across countries,” said Dr. Kaushik Sarkar, Director, IMACS. “It takes a full toolbox of connected digital solutions, all coming together on a single, unified platform.”


“Population data is key and getting it from all relevant sources, even unconventional databases that are now becoming increasingly available,” said Francis Kimani, Research Scientist, KEMRI Centre for Biotechnology Research and Development. “By combining data from traditional and nontraditional sources, this will provide more comprehensive data that can better inform early warning systems, integral to understanding climate change patterns. Community-based organizations, for example, we sometimes think that they are only useful in giving social demographics, but there’s more that they can do to also inform our early warning systems.”


“Barriers to implementing early warning systems include identifying technical skills and capacity,” said Richard Maude, Head of Epidemiology Department, Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit. “There is also a lack of integration and data and the cost, including the need to pay for analysis, lack of knowledge and awareness, and a lack of protocols and policies to support. “

“I was against AI for a very long time, because I am a biostatistician, but we have embraced it in the last year,” said William Pan, Professor of Global Environmental Health, Duke University. “I found that it was actually quite useful, especially when used for forecasting and predictions. But when you have these different types of data coming from different places, and you’re using different methods that people aren’t used to, you need a tremendous amount of skill for the implementation and effectively make decisions, because ultimately what we’re trying to do is to improve the way public health is conducted.”


“Often, we heavily focus on technical metrics – like, how well is the system performing? How well can we predict the timing of excess cases, or the peak of cases, or what’s the lead time that these models can predict,” said Kate Zinszer, Assistant Professor, School of Public Health, University of Montreal. “But what I propose is that we go beyond these types of evaluations and include the practical utility of early warning systems in practice systems – including examining more closely how they are being used in practice and if or how they are useful…But the ‘if’ and ‘how’ should be grounded within the experiences and perspectives of the end users.”


“About data collection … there are three golden rules: quality, definition and frequency,” said Dr. Kaushik Sarkar. “The better the data, the sharper the details and the more frequently its updated, the more powerful your system will be.”

IMACS Network Member Launches Ghana Malaria Modeling Project

As part of Forecasting Healthy Futures’ mission to support emerging researchers at the intersection of climate and health, we spoke to Ekuwa Adade, a doctoral researcher at Brunel University London, and a member of the IMACS Expert Network. Adade, who is researching climate sensitive diseases, recently launched a malaria modeling project as part of her doctoral research focused on her home country, Ghana. IMACS is mentoring Ekuwa in understanding and comparing different time series models and helping advance her skills in integrating climate and malaria surveillance information using advanced machine learning.

Experts Discuss Accelerating Support to Build Healthy & Climate-Resilient Cities During WHA77

On the sidelines of the 77th World Health Assembly, Forecasting Healthy Futures hosted an event entitled “Healthy & Resilient Cities Worldwide: Clearing the social and financial hurdles to integrate and scale sustainable urban innovations”, in partnership with Reaching the Last Mile.  The discussion examined the health impacts of climate threats as experienced in urban settings around the world, and the innovative efforts underway to build sustainable and resilient cities.

IMACS Expert James Colborn Discusses Malaria Elimination Efforts in Mozambique & Climate Health Solutions

Malaria is among the greatest public health threats in Mozambique, with more than 12 million cases in 2022. In a discussion with James Colborn, Senior Malaria Advisor at the Clinton Health Access Initiative and member of the Forecasting Healthy Futures Institute for Health Modeling and Climate Solutions (IMACS), Colborn discusses his malaria work in Mozambique, as well as his thoughts on addressing climate change and leveraging early warning systems.   

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