News

New Investments to Build Climate-Resilient Communities: A Conversation at WHA 76
On the sidelines of the 76th World Health Assembly, Forecasting Healthy Futures hosted an event entitled “New Investments to Build Climate-Resilient Communities: Putting Health at the Center of the Climate Agenda.” The event, co-hosted by COP28, Reaching the Last Mile, and the Global Institute for Disease Elimination (GLIDE) sought to engage the global health community in a conversation around catalyzing innovation and mobilizing new resources for climate-resilient health systems in most vulnerable geographies ahead of COP28.

Here's what we heard:
Evidence & Response
“Weather events such as rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and natural disasters are increasing the spread of these diseases and creating new opportunities for these diseases to thrive…It is clear that the climate crisis is also a health crisis and the health crisis is a crisis with a human face.” Tala Al Ramahi, Director, Reaching the Last Mile
“WHO has been making the health argument for climate action for as long as anyone can remember, but we really want to try to make good on this now, as we lead towards COP. Moving on to the ministerial, we're going to be working with a number of countries to start designing what that looks like. This is an open call to all here, particularly to the member states, to tell us how this will be most useful and important for you.” Shahbano Tirmizi, Senior Advisor, Programmes & Partnerships, UAE Climate Change Special Envoy

Responding to Urgent Climate Health Crises
“We're one of the most affected countries by climate change…. We're in the typhoon zone…During these typhoons, access to water is linked as access to clean water is limited…So breastfeeding is disrupted, so it's all connected.” Sen. Pilar Juliana Schramm Cayetano, Senator, Philippines
“The incidences of many diseases are…expected to increase with the climate change – cholera, dysentery, malaria, typhoid, yellow fever. This has caused untold suffering and loss of livelihoods. So, governments have to be able to look at how [are you] able to invest.” Dr. Olaro Charles. Director of Curative Services, Ministry of Health, Uganda
“We are really suffering a lot from climate change because of the issues which we thought were under control: malaria…My president says we don't need a hand out, we need a hand up to different things, to do something.” Hon. Khumbize Kandodo Chiponda, Minister of Health, Malawi
“I don't know whether it's the next pandemic will come from climate change, but I think the next health crisis will come from climate change, and it is kind of happening.” Peter Sands, Executive Director, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
Financing Lifesaving Interventions & Resilient System Reform
“The global community is closer than ever before to overcoming some of the world's deadliest and most debilitating diseases…. But climate change poses a direct risk to this progress….At Reaching the Last Mile, we are committed to exploring innovative approaches and solutions, as well as partnerships that can prevent the effects of climate change from hindering progress on disease elimination to ensure our impact is sustainable. Our partnership on Forecasting Healthy Futures exemplifies that approach.” Tala Al Ramahi, Director, Reaching the Last Mile
“Everybody needs to be thinking about climate…This is a global village. We're supposed to be there for each other…It's like when your neighbor's house is burning. You come out. You go through the window. You don't follow protocols. And so we're saying our houses that burning as we're talking now…How do we deal with it? How do we help each other and to build resilience so that at least, you know, our people, they should not perish.” Hon. Khumbize Kandodo Chiponda, Minister of Health, Malawi
“If we are going to get the change we need here, we need to win the politics.” Peter Sands, Executive Director, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria

“We have a major problem and even before talking about climate change, and it has to do with health spending…it's the perfect storm…We have to be putting people… at the heart of climate investments in action… So this is about health systems strengthening, about ensuring that climate is integrated within our overall health system strengthening approach” Tamer Rabie, Lead Health Specialist, World Bank
“We need new funding. We cannot leave the room on that health day [at COP28] without a clear plan. We need a financing plan.” Maria Neira, Director Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, World Health Organization

IMACS Expert Discusses New Lancet Study on Malaria Investments & Control
A new Lancet study details the significance of malaria interventions for sustained malaria control. In Amazonian Peru, malaria control preventions helped reduce the incidence of the deadly parasitic disease by 78%. That is, until the programs ceased to operate. Within four years of the programs being de-funded, malaria rates were back where they started, as detailed in the April 2023 edition of The Lancet Regional Health Americas. Dr. William Pan, a Duke environmental health researcher and member of the Institute for Malaria and Climate Solutions (IMACS) Expert Network, worked on the report and recently shared his thoughts on what the findings mean for health in the context of climate change.

Q: What is the significance of this latest Lancet report?
Overall, the study shows a clear relationship between malaria interventions and reduction in cases. Even with increasing transmission potential caused by climate change, interventions serve as a strong, adaptation tool that buffers the impact that climate can play in increasing human morbidity.
Three key findings in our study include: First, malaria control interventions can be highly effective in the Amazon, especially if they are implemented at the community level. Second, sustained funding is critical to maintain malaria control programs, and when programs are funded by international donors, there needs to be a clear plan for long-term sustainable funding after those donors withdraw. Third, climate change increases malaria transmission and interventions can serve as a buffer (or adaptation strategy) for increased transmission risk.
However, I do want to say that the climate-malaria relationship is not always straightforward. In the Amazon, we observed an average temperature increase over a ten-year period (0.5C) that concurrently caused high variability in rainfall. When you combine this with anthropogenic land-use change, you create ideal conditions in which malaria vector habitat and people to occupy the same space, which increases transmission potential.
Q: What did you find most encouraging about the report?
With sustained funding for malaria control at the community level, significant declines in Malaria transmission can be achieved.
Q: What did you find most discouraging about the report?
There was no plan for bridge funding after the global fund withdrew from Perú, causing a rapid collapse of progress by the interventions.
Q: As part of the study, you traveled to Peru. Can you tell us about your experience?
Some of my closest friends in life are Peruvian and live in Peru. I love visiting and working in the country since I stay with friends, who are essentially like family, I eat delicious food, and I get to work in some amazing places and with some amazing people.
But Peru has some serious social and economic problems, and in my view as an outsider, many of those problems, originate from the vast economic disparities that exist between the Amazon and Highland regions of the country versus the wealthier Coastal urban centers. I don’t claim to have a solution to their problems, but in terms of health disparities, it’s not surprising that investments in healthcare in places like the Amazon are seriously underfunded, since it is a mirror image of the economic disparities that exist for the country as a whole. As I have worked in many other countries throughout Latin America, this pattern is unfortunately a common one. But what gives me hope is that by working in vulnerable communities and trying to understand their needs to have a healthier and more productive life, we can create more cost-effective tools that can actually improve human and environmental health.
Q: The malaria resurgence began after the end of the Global Fund’s support for the project. Can you talk about the significance of investing in interventions?
Every sports franchise has a farm team. The New York Yankees, Manchester, United, PSG, the list goes on. These are investments for sustaining excellence in sports. You don’t see those franchises investing for say, 4-5 years and then say, “I think I’ll stop now” and assume that their success will be sustained. Health interventions are the same, you need an investment to create an initial impact, and you need sustained support to maintain impact and to keep improving.
Q: This study also assessed the impact of climate change on malaria. What did it find?
We observed a 0.5C average temperature increase in the study region AND we observed an increase in rainfall variability (i.e., more rainfall events with greater precipitation). Regardless of the intervention period (i.e., per or post), we see that these two factors were associated with higher levels of transmission. In the amazon, the temperature increase likely has little to no effect on transmission since the Amazon is almost always in an ideal temperature range for malaria transmission. However, the disruption in hydrological cycles means that flooding was more likely in districts experiencing higher rainfall events, which leads to more habitat for mosquito reproduction. Thus, in regions where deforestation is (or has) occurred, which is where the malaria mosquito (Anopheles) likes to inhabit, there were likely greater densities of the malaria vector and higher potential for transmission.
Q: What role does Forecasting Healthy Futures serve when it comes to helping to address such concerns?
As I noted above, malaria in the Amazon (and in most regions of Latin America) occurs in rural or semi-urban remote areas with some human capacity to deliver health care, but usually lacking resources and knowledge of existing health risks. FHF can help facilitate the connection of these areas with up-to-date information on health risks using cost-effective technologies. FHF can also help serve as an advocate for vulnerable communities around Latin America to help give them a stronger voice in advocating for their specific needs to improve health and well-being.
Visit ForecastingHealthyFutures.org to learn more and follow us on Twitter @FHF_global

Forecasting Healthy Futures Hosts Inaugural Summit on Climate & Health
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, March 16, 2023 – Forecasting Healthy Futures, in partnership with Reaching the Last Mile, this week hosted the inaugural Forecasting Healthy Futures Global Summit in Abu Dhabi.

The health burden of climate change
A call for global scientific action

Quarterly Newsletter from FHF
As we look back on a year alarmingly full of climate events and their devastating aftermath, and after COP27’s sobering look at the state of global warming and our imperfect efforts to turn it around, it’s natural to feel concerned and discouraged about the future.

Malaria No More and Reaching the Last Mile Announce Expansion of Climate & Health Initiative with a New $5 million Grant
Abu Dhabi, January 3, 2023 – Malaria No More (MNM) today announced the expansion of its climate and health initiative, Forecasting Healthy Futures, through a new 3-year, $5 million award from the Reaching the Last Mile initiative (RLM), as witnessed by His Highness Sheikh Theyab bin Mohammed bin Zayed, Member of the Executive Council.

"Climate-Proofing" Global Health Systems: A Discussion at COP27
At the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, during a session on climate change and global health, Malaria No More, in partnership with the Reaching the Last Mile initiative, hosted a panel discussion through its climate and global health initiative, Forecasting Healthy Futures. The session, entitled “Climate-Proofing Global Health Systems with Earth Observation Data, Artificial Intelligence, and other transformative technologies”, centered on making global health systems resilient to changing climate conditions.

COP27: Climate anxiety is rising - it might be a good thing
Global leaders are about to meet for another UN climate summit - COP27 starting in Sharm el-Sheikh on Sunday - and the reality of climate change for many people can be overwhelming.

How climate change influences the spread of disease – four essential reads
Climate change has led to extreme weather events such as floods and drought. These events have become more frequent and more severe. Natural disasters associated with climate change have a devastating effect on people’s lives, destroying homes, roads and others key infrastructure.

What the latest IPCC science says about climate change
COP27 delegates will be relying on UN climate science agency studies to make decisions about future energy plans
Resources
NIH’s Climate and Health Initiative Tackles Global Health Effects Associated With a Changing Climate
Agency leaders discuss new research plan in The Lancet
Closing the Emissions Gap: A Climate Action Roadmap for Limiting Warming to 1.5°C
The science is clear about how to prevent increasingly dangerous and irreversible climate change impacts: Limit global temperature rise to 1.5˚C (2.7˚F), which means cutting GHG emissions in half by 2030 and reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by mid-century.
The Global South Climate Database
The Global South Climate Database is a publicly available, searchable database of scientists and experts in the fields of climate science, policy and energy.
Finding the Signal: Harnessing Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Analytics at the Intersection of Climate and Global Health
While the impacts of the climate crisis are coming fast and furious, artificial intelligence and advanced analytics (AI/AA) offer a light at the end of the tunnel as they can help us make sense of how the complex, interwoven systems of climate and global health interact.
Generation Hope: 2.4 billion Reasons to End the Global Climate and Inequality Crisis
Climate change isn’t a threat to the future. For the world’s 2.4 billion children, it’s a global emergency today.
The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change
The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown is published as the world confronts profound and concurrent systemic shocks.
Climate & Health Advocacy Boot Camp
Health professionals are trusted voices to the public on climate change. Come learn concrete skills from the experts on effective climate action, and build your climate community.
The Climate Emergency: Research Gaps and Policy Priorities
The World Health Organization has identified climate change as the single biggest health threat facing humanity. Physiology is an essential part of the scientific response as it helps us understand the consequences of climate change for humans and other animals.
Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic.
Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change
The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change data explorer. This new platform allows users to engage with our findings and explore the 2021 report data at country specific, regional and income group level.
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